Future forecasting
Rachel Reeves’ latest Spring Statement was announced on March 3rd. It was deemed to be a ‘low-key’ one that focused on economic stability instead of spending measures or new tax announcements. So with global uncertainty growing exponentially and growth forecasts downgraded by the Office for Budget Responsibility, what do our experts think of her economic plan and how it affects their professional sector?
PROPERTY
Deborah Richards, Senior Partner at Maddisons Residential
“For buyers and sellers, the stable economy will be encouraging”
“After the uncertainty of the Autumn Budget, this year’s Spring Statement was deliberately steady, with no major tax or housing policy moves, and a focus on updated Office Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts rather than any sweeping changes. In short, the mood was stability over surprises.
For buyers and sellers, the stable economy will be encouraging. The OBR projects growth of 1.1% in 2026, with inflation easing, and unemployment peaking before trending down. These are all conditions that typically reduce volatility in borrowing costs and sentiment. Mortgage costs are expected to edge up gradually, keeping affordability tight, but more predictable than last year. However, we cannot ignore that energyprice rises will impact on inflation, and so the pace of expected cuts to Bank Base Rate may not be pan out as expected.
Looking specifically in the South East, demand for welllocated family homes in commuter towns remains strong. Stock will remain the issue, as evidenced by the OBR’s weaker nearterm housebuilding trajectory and ongoing planning tension: one reason prime roads in Tunbridge Wells hold their premiums.
Our advice to sellers is to price correctly and present well to ensure a strong outcome. Buyers should be decisive on bestinclass homes, considering fixedrate mortgage deals to lock in today’s terms.”
www.maddisonsresidential.co.uk
RECRUITMENT
Neil Simmons, Managing Director
of TN Recruits
“Rather than being all doom and gloom, this environment presents opportunity”
“The Spring Statement 2026 offered the UK business community a steady, clear-eyed update on the economy rather than major tax or spending changes. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) confirmed modest growth this year and projected the labour market will adjust over time – with unemployment expected to peak around 5.3 % mid-year and gradually ease to about 4.1 % in the years ahead.
For the recruitment sector, that doesn’t spell slowdown, it simply reflects normal market cycles. In fact, as of February 2026 there are approximately 726,000 jobs being advertised across the UK, according to the latest ONS data, showing sustained demand for talent.
Recruitment remains a powerhouse industry, contributing over £40 billion to the UK economy and serving as a vital bridge between employers and skilled candidates. Local companies in the South East continue to recruit actively, turning to specialist recruiters to find hard-to-reach talent in competitive markets.
Rather than gloom, this environment presents opportunity: with thousands of vacancies and employers focused on growth, recruitment firms are busier than ever helping businesses secure the right people, quickly and strategically. In times of economic transition, expert recruitment partners are invaluable, connecting ambition with capability and fuelling regional success.”
LEGAL
Megan O’Hara, Employment Partner, and Elliot Lewis, Head of Private Client, at Thackray Williams
“We expect to be busier than ever advising personal and business clients”
“Despite Rachel Reeves’ upbeat message that inflation and borrowing were down and living standards were up, the revised forecast published by the Office for Budget Responsibility alongside her Statement showed, at best, only sluggish progress, with economic growth downgraded for this year to 1.1% from 1.4%, unemployment set to rise to 5.3% and inflation not expected to hit the target 2% until next year.
With the effects of fiscal drag bringing more people into higher tax rates, and businesses adapting to further increases in the National Living and National Minimum Wages next month, 2026 was already set to continue to be challenging.
And that was before the Middle East conflict; erupting four days before her Statement, the Chancellor acknowledged it made everything ‘yet more uncertain’. With the repercussions already rippling through the economy, the Chancellor’s Statement was possibly out of date before she finished delivering it.
There was welcome confirmation that the Inheritance Tax allowance for 100% relief on Agricultural and Business assets is increased from the original £1,000,000 to £2,500,000 per person, giving our clients more confidence and flexibility around retirement and succession plans for their business.
But the prospect of interest rate cuts – which many businesses, homeowners and potential first-time buyers had been hoping for – are fading, while inflationary pressures are increasing. Add to that the implementation of the Employment Rights Act and we’re anticipating difficult decisions for many corporate clients, which could have repercussions for staff and jobseekers.
When seismic shocks rearrange the landscape, it becomes harder for both individuals and businesses to plan. The impact for us as lawyers is that we expect to be busier than ever advising personal and business clients to help them navigate this uncertainty to protect their interests and those of their loved ones.”
HUMAN RESOURCES
Gemma Farina, Managing Director of GFHR Consulting
“The message for HR leaders and business owners is one of steady navigation rather than relief”
“From an HR perspective, the Chancellor’s Spring Statement struck a clear tone of economic stability rather than new intervention. Rachel Reeves acknowledged that while inflation is easing and interest rates have begun to fall, the labour market remains under pressure, with unemployment expected to peak before gradually declining over the forecast period.
For employers, this reinforces a cautious backdrop for workforce planning. Wage growth is continuing, but the Chancellor also recognised that pay rises are still being eroded by inflation and frozen tax thresholds. This means businesses are balancing higher employment costs against employees’ ongoing costofliving concerns. From an HR standpoint, this is likely to increase the importance of nonpay benefits, flexibility and wellbeing support in retaining staff.
The Statement also highlighted falling energy bills and improving household finances over time, which may ease some pressure on employees, but the absence of new measures aimed directly at employers means organisations will need to continue absorbing cost pressures themselves.
Overall, the message for HR leaders and business owners is one of steady navigation rather than relief. The focus now is on resilience: managing workforce costs carefully, supporting engagement and productivity, and planning for a labour market that may remain tight even as economic conditions stabilise.”
RENTAL SECTOR
Becky Moran, Managing Director at
TN Lettings and TN Sales
“Expect short term increases in inflation with a knock on effect to interest rates”
The Spring statement, the Chancellor’s mid-year review of her budget had little in the way of ‘new’ news instead commentary on the three main areas that the Chancellor insists are the most important. They are: Social Justice, National Security & Fiscal Security.
There were some slight amends to inflation and interest rate forecasts, and a short-term dip in housebuilding. That said the conflict in the Middle East will likely add some short term increases in inflation with a knock on effect to interest rates.
The medium to longer term economic forecasts suggests inflation should continue falling toward the Bank of England target.
Why does this matter for landlords? Here are the reasons why:
Markets expect gradual mortgage rate reductions during 2026, likely to now be Q3 and Q4
Lower mortgage rates increase rental profit
Investors will be looking to purchase more rental properties
Landlords and tenants are still operating in a market that continues to evolve, in the short term the key priorities essential to compliance and legislation are becoming clearer as the newly legislated Renter’s Reform Act comes in to force. Landlords investing in a good letting agent, is now, more important than ever.
The other factor for landlords to take into consideration is the increasing level of unemployment, especially in the younger worker population and the ability for tenants to pay their rent. The easy answer to this, is to provide measures to insure rent, bringing tenant referencing to the forefront when choosing new tenants.
